1. China’s output of refractories

According to the Association of China Refractories Industry (ACRI), China totally produced 21.1737 million tons of refractory products in 2025, shrinking by 4.07% YoY. Among the total output, dense shaped refractory products were yielded 10.8351 million tons, letting down 4.25% YoY; output of insulating refractory products was 0.8056 million tons, edging down 3.83% YoY; that of monolithic refractories was 9.533 million tons, down 3.87% YoY.

In terms of the 109 key refractory enterprises in China, their total output of refractories was 12.2545 million tons (including some refractory raw materials) in 2025, increasing by 1.34% year-on-year, among which the output of refractory products was 9.1917 million tons, increasing by 1.69% year-on-year. Their total sales revenue of refractory raw materials and products was 62.716 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.78%, of which the sales revenue of refractory products reached 54.796 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.31%. However, the combined sales revenue of the top ten enterprises was 33.827 billion yuan, an increase of 1.62 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.03%, indicating that the market is concentrating on leading enterprises.

In 2025, the total output of refractory raw materials and products from 1,026 enterprises in the main production bases across the country was 24.8381 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.20%. Among them, the output of refractory products was 15.9343 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.69%. Their total sales revenue was 94.325 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 0.88%, and the tax paid was 4.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.43%. From the data above, it can be seen that the total output and sales revenue of refractories of enterprises in the main production bases both declined in 2025. Profits across China's refractory industry declined significantly, and small and medium-sized producers are under considerable operational pressure.

2. China's exports of refractories

According to statistics from China's customs, the total import and export trade value of refractory raw materials and products of China was 3.569 billion US dollars in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.51%. The export trade value was 3.378 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 10.74%, and the import trade value was 191 million US dollars, increasing by 19.74% year-on-year. In 2025, China's export quantity of refractory raw materials was 4.9732 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.77%, and the exports of refractory products was 1.9418 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.53%. Compared with 2024, both the export quantity and value of refractory raw materials and products showed a downward trend in 2025, which has led to a 6.95% decline year-on-year in the average export price.

In terms of various types of refractory raw materials, except for fused magnesia and caustic calcined magnesia which increased by 6.31% and 7.32% respectively year-on-year, the average export prices of other types of refractory raw materials all decreased to varying degrees, with the year-on-year decline rates of fireclay, brown fused alumina (BFA), white fused alumina (WFA) and silicon carbide being 17.09%, 6.11%, 9.76% and 9.96% respectively. The average export price of refractory products decreased by 5.63% year-on-year, among which the average export prices of basic refractory products and aluminosilicate refractory products decreased by 3.54% and 5.34% respectively year-on-year. It can be seen that the average export price of refractory raw materials declined more significantly than that of refractory products. However, the overall export situation of China's refractory raw materials and products in 2025 showed a trend of decline for both quantity and price.

3. China's consumption of refractories

In 2025, although the market demand for refractories declined somewhat, it has remained at a relatively high level and relatively stable as a whole. At present, the production base of downstream industries of refractories such as crude steel and cement remains. However, the problem is also quite obvious. On the one hand, the leading refractories manufacturers in China are in an awkward situation where they have work to do but no money to make. On the other hand, market competition is rather fierce, with the bidding and tendering competition mainly centering on price reduction, and a single order being often fiercely contested by multiple enterprises.

The operating conditions of magnesia refractories enterprises declined significantly in 2025, with the fundamental reason being the decrease in real demand. Due to the interaction between technological progress and regional contracting system, the unit consumption of refractories has been continuously declining, and the total industry demand has simultaneously dropped. In particular, the extensive use of refractories after use has led the industry to estimate that the demand for refractory raw materials has dropped significantly by about 20%. 

From the supply side, leading refractories enterprises have added a large amount of effective production capacity during 2020-2025, and the market trend of "strong supply and weak demand" was more obvious in 2025. The increase in demand in emerging fields such as electronic materials and photovoltaics is insufficient to make up for the decline in traditional markets.

In 2025, the absolute figures for the output of crude steel, building materials, cement and glass remained large. The output of 10 non-ferrous metals continued to grow, and the output of chemicals, power, foundry and ferroalloys was also at a high level. The overall demand for refractories in the above industries has formed a basic support surface. The total demand for refractories in the Chinese market is expected to remain at the 20 million ton level.

4. Market outlook for China's refractories in 2026

Although there are no signs of a rebound in China's refractories market as of the first quarter of 2026 and industry profit margins are still declining, the feature that prices have bottomed is already very obvious. However, it is expected that the contradiction between supply and demand of refractories will remain prominent in 2026, and the competition among peers will still be extremely fierce.

From a macroeconomic perspective, as China's series of policies and measures for stabilizing growth gradually take effect, the rigid demand for refractories in the downstream high-temperature industrial sector will be solidly supported, and the market price of refractories has a basis for a moderate upward trend. If the macroeconomy continues to recover in the future, the profit level of the refractory industry is expected to see a significant restoration in 2026.

The Association of China's Refractory Industry (ACRI) proposed: "At present, the competition among peers in the refractory materials industry has entered a brand-new stage of reduced development and optimization of existing stock. The pattern of oversupply will become a long-term structural contradiction. The reshaping of the industry's supply and demand pattern and the achievement of a new balance still require a process.

"Against this industry backdrop, Chinese refractory material enterprises need to firmly promote the transformation towards 'high-end, intelligent and green', and at the same time strengthen their awareness of industry self-discipline: they must resolutely not accept orders that lack marginal contribution and must not undertake projects that cannot generate cash flow. The traditional inertial thinking of 'trading price for sales' not only fails to solve the fundamental problems existing in the industry, but may also intensify vicious competition and harm the overall interests of the industry. 

"In the face of the current market environment, refractory material enterprises of different scales and with diverse product structures should, in light of their own resource endowments and development characteristics, accurately anchor their differentiated market positioning, and consolidate their customer base by deeply cultivating niche fields and improving service quality. Only in this way can they gain a firm foothold in the fierce market competition and achieve sustainable development. This is also the core survival strategy for refractory material enterprises at the present stage."