Aug. 7, 2025 - Guinea’s bauxite exports reached 99.8 million tonnes in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 36% and marking a new record high. This rapid growth further solidifies Guinea’s position as the world’s leading exporter of bauxite, largely driven by expanding Chinese demand and the ramp-up of infrastructure capacity at key ports such as Kamsar and Boké.

Data from industry sources indicate that over 60% of Guinea’s bauxite exports are currently handled by Chinese-controlled enterprises, underscoring China’s strategic influence over the West African nation’s mining sector. The export surge has been accompanied by increased logistical complexity, with the rainy season between July and September expected to reduce average monthly shipments by 15–20% due to operational constraints.

The recent suspension of production at the GAC mine and ongoing disruptions at other mining sites have introduced new uncertainties in the short-term supply landscape. These factors have already triggered upward pressure on CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) bauxite prices, which have climbed from $70/ton to over $75/ton, with projections suggesting a potential rise to $82–86/ton if disruptions persist through the wet season.

Adding further complexity, the Guinean government formally launchedNimba Mining Company (NMC)—a new state-owned enterprise—in August 2025 to oversee national bauxite development and increase local control over strategic mineral assets. Under emerging policy frameworks, at least 50% of bauxite exports are now mandated to be shipped via Guinean-flagged vessels, creating additional cost and capacity pressures in the bulk shipping market, particularly for Capesize carriers.

While the establishment of NMC signals Guinea’s intent to capture greater value from its resource base, it also raises concerns among international investors about policy continuity and operational transparency. If NMC can deliver on its mandate, it could significantly enhance state revenues and reshape global supply dynamics. However, questions remain regarding its financial and technical capabilities in managing large-scale mining operations.

The move has also sparked broader geopolitical implications, with China, as the dominant buyer, closely monitoring potential shifts in control and governance within Guinea’s mining sector. Meanwhile, other West African nations may look to Guinea as a model for resource nationalization strategies, potentially setting a precedent for similar moves in countries like Mali and Niger.

As global supply chains adjust, industry stakeholders are advised to closely track developments in Guinea’s mining policy, infrastructure investments, and the performance of the newly established NMC, all of which are poised to influence the long-term structure of the global aluminum industry.