Nov. 14, 2025 - China’s cement industry remained under notable pressure in the first three quarters of 2025, with both production and demand weakening amid a slowdown in construction and investment. National cement output from January to September reached 1.259 billion tonnes, down 5.2% year-on-year.

Weak demand was the main drag. Fixed-asset investment slipped 0.5%, the first negative reading in years. Infrastructure growth continued to lose momentum, rising only 1%. The real-estate sector remained in deep contraction, with development investment down 13.9%, new starts down 18.9%, and construction area down 9.4%, all weighing directly on cement consumption.

On the supply side, peak-shifting controls were well implemented early in the year but became less effective from the second quarter as demand fell. The mismatch between supply and demand pushed market prices lower. The average national price for 42.5-grade cement in the first nine months was 372 RMB per ton, slightly below last year’s level. Lower coal costs helped improve margins, and industry profit for the period is estimated at 22–23 billion RMB, still at a relatively low level.

Looking to the fourth quarter, demand is expected to remain weaker than usual despite the traditional construction season. Full-year cement demand is projected to decline by about 7%. Whether prices stabilize will depend largely on stricter enforcement of production limits.

Policy tightening will continue to influence the sector, with capacity-replacement rules becoming more stringent and the government pushing for reductions in inefficient production. Industry consolidation, cost-cutting, energy-efficiency upgrades, and digital transformation are expected to remain key themes as companies navigate a challenging market environment.